Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.