Daily Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The average count of daily homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government statistics. However, security experts have advised that homicide numbers might not indicate better national safety.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of almost 55 murders a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen during these past months is extremely important,” the President remarked, noting that last month the least number of murders were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily military efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than the US. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

However, public safety experts cautioned that relying on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for assessing the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday killings was also problematic because it may mask days when there were notably spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for major offenses, per government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by high violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a story of safety. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.