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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."